The Art of the Long View 前瞻的艺术

书籍目录

PrefacaIntroduction to the Paperback Edition：The Strategic Conversation--BroadeningThe Long ViewThe Pathfinder’S TaleThe Smith&Hawken Story：The Process of Scenario—BuildingThe Scenario—Building AnimalUncovering the DecisionInformation-·Hunting and··GatheringCreating Scenario Building BlocksAnatomy of a New Driving Force：The Global TeenagerComposing a PlotThe World in 2005：Three ScenariosRehearsing the FutureEpilogue：To My Newborn SonAfterword：The Value of a StrategicConversatiOnUser’S Guide：HOW to Hold aStrategic ConversationAppendix：Steps to Developing ScenariosEndnotesScenario Planning：Select BiographyIndex

作者简介

"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent futures. It ensures that you are not always right about the future but--better--that you are almost never wrong about the future. The technology is powerful, simple, and enjoyable, and so is Schwartza s book." --Stewart Brand What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life--bottom--line numbers, for instance--but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories--scenarios--and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all--new Usera s Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the worlda s leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.

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