MACROECONOMICS 宏观经济学

书籍目录

PREFACE

PART ONE - INTRODUCTION 1

CHAPTER 1 - A TOUR OF THE WORLD

1 -1 WHAT IS MACROECONOMICS?

The Simplifications of Macroeconomics

1 Why Macroeconomists Sometimes

Disagree

1-2 LOOKING AT THE WORLD

The United States ?The European

Union ?Japan 11

1-3 LOOKINGAHEAD

CHAPTER 2 - A TOUR OF THE BOOK

2-1 AGGREGATE OUTPUT

GDP, Value Added, and Income ? Nominal and Real GDP

2-2 THE OTHER MAJOR MACROECONOMIC

VARIABLES

The Unemployment Rate ?The

Inflation Rate ?Budget Deficits and

Trade Deficits

2-3 A ROAD MAP

PART TWO - THE BASICS

CHAPTER 3 - TME GOODS MARKET

3-1 THE COMPOSITION OF GDP

3-2 THE DETERMINATION OF DEMAND

Consumption (C) ?Investment (I)

?Government Spending (G)

3-3 THE DETERMINATION OF

EQUILIBRIUM OUTPUT

The Algebra ?A Graph ?In

Words

3-4 INVESTMENT EQUALS SAVING: AN

ALTERNATIVE WAY OF THINKING ABOUT

GOODS-MARKET EQUILIBRIUM

3-5 THE PARADOX OF SAVING

3-6 IS THE GOVERNMENT REALLY

OMNIPOTENT? A WARNING

CHAPTER 4 - THE GOODS MARKET:

DYNAMICS

4-1 PRODUCTION, SALES, AND

INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Dividing Time ?Production and Sales

?Equilibrium in the Goods Market

Revisited ?The Dynamic Effects of

an Increase in Government Spending

?Using a Graph

4-2 GOING EMPIRICAL

Estimating the Marginal Propensity to

Consume ?Allowing for Lags ? Correlation Versus Causality

4-3 SlMULATING THE ESTIMATED

MODEL

A-A CONCLUSIONS

CHAPTER 5 - FlNANCIAL MARKETS

5-1 MONEY VERSUS BONDS

The Basic Choice ?The Demand for

Money ?The Demand for Bonds

?Money Demand and the Interest Rate:

The Evidence

5-2 THE DETERMINATION OF THE

INTEREST RATE: 1

Money Demand, Money Supply, and the

Equilibrium Interest Rate ?Monetary

Policy and Open Market Operations ? Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate

5-3 THE DETERMINATION OF THE

INTEREST RATE: 11

The Role of Banks ?The Determination

of the Money Supply ?The Effects of

an Open Market Operation ? Conclusions: Money Demand and Money

Supply

CHAPTER 6 - GOODS AND FlNANCIAL

MARKETS: THE IS-LM

6-1 THE GOODS MARKET AND THE IS

RELATION

Investment, Sales, and the Interest Rate

?The IS Curve ?Shifts in the IS

Curve

6-2 FlNANCIAL MARKETS AND THE LM

RELATION

Real Money, Real Income, and the Interest

Rate ?The LM Curve ?Shifts in

the LM Curve

6-3 THE IS-LM MODEL: EXERCISES

Fiscal Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate

?Mohetary Policy, Activity, and the

Interest Rate ?Using a Policy Mix

6-4 ADDING DYNAMICS

6-5 DOES THE IS-LM MODEL ACTUALLY

CAPTURE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE

ECONOMY?

PART THREE - EXPECTATIONS

CHAPTER 7 - EXPECTATIONS: THE BASIC

TOOLS

7-1 NOMINAL VERSUS REAL INTEREST

RATES

Computing the Real Interest Rate ? Nominal and Rfeal Interest Rates in the

United States Since 1978

7-2 EXPECTED PRESENT DlSCOUNTED

VALUES

Computing Expected Present Discounted

Values ?Applications ?Nominal

Versus Real Interest Rates, and Present

Values

7-3 NOMINAL AND REAL INTEREST

RATES, AND THE IS-LM MODEL

APPENDIX: DERIVING THE PRESENT

DlSCOUNTED VALUE USING REAL OR

NOMINAL INTEREST RATES

CHAPTER 8 - EXPECTATIONS,

CONSUMPTION, AND INVESTMENT

8-1 CONSUMPTION

The Very Foresighted Consumer ?An

Example ?Toward a More Realistic

Description ?Putting Things

Together: Current Income, Expectations,

and Consumption

8-2 INVESTMENT

Investment and Expectations ofProfit

?A Convenient Special Case ? Current Versus Expected Profit ? Profit and Sales

8-3 THE VOLATILITY OF CONSUMPTION

AND INVESTMENT

APPENDIX: DERIVATION OF THE EXPECTED

PRESENT VALUE OF PROFITS WHEN

FUTURE PROFITS AND INTEREST

RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE

SAME AS TODAY

CHAPTER 9 - FlNANCIAL MARKETS AND

EXPECTATIONS

9-1 BONDPRICESANDTHEYIELDCURVE

Bond Prices as Present Values ? Arbitrage and Bond Prices ?From

Bond Prices to Bond Yields ?The

Yield Curve and Economic Activity

9-2 THE STOCK MARKET AND

MOVEMENTS IN STOCK PRICES

Stock Prices as Present Values ?The

Stock Market and Economic Activity

9-3 BUBBLES, FADS, AND STOCK PRICES

APPENDIX: ARBITRAGEAND STOCK PRICES

185

CHAPTER 10- EXPECTATIONS, POLICY,

AND OUTPUT

10-1 EXPECTATIONS AND DECISIONS:

TAKING STOCK

Expectations and the IS Relation ? The LM Relation Revisited

10-2 A FlRST EXERCISE: MONETARY

POLICY, EXPECTATIONS, AND OUTPUT

10-3 DEFICIT REDUCTION, EXPECTATIONS,

AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

10-4 THE CLINTON DEFICIT REDUCTION

PACKAGE

The Design of a Program ?The

Outcome

10-5 ON TO THE OPEN ECONOMY

PART FOUR - OPENNESS

CHAPTER 1 1 - OPENNESS IN GOODS AND

FlNANCIAL MARKETS

11-1 OPENNESS IN GOODS MARKETS

Nominal Exchange Rates ?Real

Exchange Rates

11-2 OPENNESS IN FlNANCIAL MARKETS

The Balance of Payments ?The

Choice Between Domestic and Foreign

Assets

11-3 CONCLUSIONS AND A LOOK AHEAD

CHAPTER 12 - THE GOODS MARKET IN AN

OPEN ECONOMY

12-1 THE IS RELATION IN THE OPEN

ECONOMY

The Demand for Domestic Goods ? The Determinants of the Demand for

Domestic Goods

12-2 EQUILIBRIUM OUTPUT AND THE

TRADE BALANCE

12-3 INCREASES IN DEMAND, DOMESTIC

OR FOREIGN

Increases in Government Spending ? Increases in Foreign Demand ? Games That Countries Play

12-4 DEPRECIATION, THE TRADE BALANCE,

AND OUTPUT

Depreciation and the Trade Balance: The

Marshall-Lerner Condition ?The

Effects of a Depreciation ? Combining Exchange-Rate and Fiscal

Policies

12-5 LOOKING AT DYNAMICS: THE

J-CURVE

12-6 SAVING,INVESTMENT, AND TRADE

DEFICITS

APPENDIX: DERIVATION OF THE MARSHALL-

LERNER CONDITION

CHAPTER 13 - OUTPLJT, THE INTEREST

RATE, AND THE EXCHANGE RATE

13-1 EQUILIBRIUM IN THE GOODS MARKET

13-2 EQUILIBRIUM IN FlNANCIAL

MARKETS

Money Versus Bonds ?Domestic

Bonds Versus Foreign Bonds

13-3 PUTTING GOODS AND FlNANCIAL

MARKETS TOGETHER

13-4 THE EFFECTS OF POLICY IN AN OPEN

ECONOMY

The Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Open

Economy ?The Effects of Monetary

Policy in an Open Economy

13-5 FlXED EXCHANGE RATES

Pegs, Crawling Pegs, Bands, and the EMS

?Pegging the Exchange Rate, and

Monetary Control ?Fiscal Policy

Under Fixed Exchange Rates

APPENDIX: FlXED EXCHANGE RATES,

INTEREST RATES, AND CAPITAL

MOBILITY

CHAPTER 14 - EXPECTATIONS,

EXCHANGE-RATE MOVEMENTS, AND

EXCHANGE-RATE CRISES

14-1 THE DETERMINANTS OF THE REAL

EXCHANGE RATE

Real Interest Rates and the Real Exchange

Rate ?Long-Term Real Interest Rates

and the Real Exchange Rate ?The

Real Exchange Rate, Trade, and Interest

Rate Differentials

14-2 THE DANCE OF THE DOLLAR IN THE

1980s

14-3 THE APPRECIATION OF THE YEN IN

THE 1990s

14-4 EXCHANGE RATES, MONETARY

POLICY, AND NEWS

Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, and

Exchange Rates Policy and

Expectations

14-5 FlXED EXCHANGE RATES AND

EXCHANGE-RATE CRISES

Crises in the European Monetary System

APPENDIX: FROM NOMINAL TO REAL

INTEREST PARITY

PART FIVE - THE SUPPLY SIDE

CHAPTER 15 - THE LABOR MARKET

15-1 A TOUR OF THE LABOR MARKET

The Large Flows of Workers ? Differences Across Workers ? Movements in Unemployment

15-2 WAGE DETERMINATION

Bargaining ?Efficiency Wages ? Wages and Unemployment

15-3 PRICE DETERMINATION

15-4 THE NATURAL RATE OF

UNEMPLOYMENT

The Wage-Setting Relation ?The

Price-Setting Relation ?Equilibrium

Real Wages, Employment, and

Unemployment ?From

Unemployment to Output

15-5 WHERE WE GO FROM HERE

APPENDTX: WAGE- AND PRICE-SETTING

RELATIONS VERSUS LABOR SUPPLY

AND LABOR DEMAND

CHAPTER 16 - PLITTING ALL MARKETS

TOGETHER

16-1

AGGREGATE SUPPLY

The Derivation of the Aggregate Supply

Relation ?The Aggregate Supply

Relation and the Natural Level of Output

16-2

16-3

16-4

AGGREGATE DEMAND

MOVEMENTS IN OUTPUT AND PRICES

THE EFFECTS OF A MONETARY

EXPANSION

The Dynamics of Adjustment ? Looking Behind the Scene ?The

Neutrality of Money

16-5 A DECREASE IN THE BUIDGET DEFICIT

The Budget Deficit, Output, and the

Interest Rate ?Budget Deficits,

Output, and Investment

16-6 MOVEMENTS IN THE PRICE OF OlL

Effects on the Natural Rate of

Unemployment ?The Dynarnics of

Adjustment

16-7 CONCLUSIONS

The Short Run Versus the Long Run

?Shocks and Propagation Mechanisms

?Output, Unemployment, and

Inflation

CHAPTER 17 - THE PHILLIPS CURVE

17-1 INFLATION, EXPECTED INFLATION,

AND UNEMPLOYMENT

17-2 THE PHILLIPS CURVE

The Early Incarnation ?Mutations

?Back to the Natural Rate of

Unemployment

17-3 A SUMMARY AND MANY WARNINGS

The Inflation Process and the Phillips Curve

?Differences in the Natural Rate

Across Countries ?Variations in Ihe

Natural Rate over Time ?The Limits

of Our Understanding

APPENOIX: FROM THE. AGGREGATE SUPPLY

RELATION TO THE PHILLIPS CURVE

CHAPTER 18- INFLATION, DlSINFLATION,

AND UNEMPLOYMENT

18-1 INFLATION, OUTPUT, AND

UNEMPLOYMENT

The Phillips Curve: Unemployment and the

Change in Inflation ?Okun's Law:

Output Growth and Changes in

Unemployment ?The Aggregate

Demand Relation: Output Growth, Money

Growth, and Inflation

18-2 THELONGRUN

18-3 DlSINFLATION: THE ISSUES

A First Pass ?Expectations and

Credibility: The Lucas Critique ? Nominal Rigidities and Contracts

18-4 THE U.S. DISINFLATION, 1979-1985

CHAPTER 19 - INFLATION, INTEREST

RATES, AND EXCHANGE RATES

19-1 MONEY GROWTH, INFLATION, AND

INTEREST RATES

Real and Nominal Interest Rates ? The Short Run ?The Long Run

?Dynamics ?Evidence on the Fisher

Hypothesis

19-2 FlXED EXCHANGE RATES AND

DEVALLJATIONS

Aggregate Demand Under Fixed Exchange

Rates ?Aggregate Demand and

Aggregate Supply ?What

Devaluations Can Do ?Whether and

When to Devalue

PART SIX - PATHOLOGIES

CHAPTER 20 - PATHOLOGIES 1: HlGH

U N EM PLOYMENT

20-1 THEGREAT DEPRESSION

The Fall in Spending ?The

Contraction in Nominal Money ?The

Adverse Eftects of Deflation ?Thc

Recovery

20-2 UNEMPLOYMENT IN EUROPE

Labor Market Rigidities ?Hysteresis

20-3 CONCLUSIONS

CHAPTER 21 - PATHOLOGIES 11: HlGH

INFLATION

21-1 BUDGET DEFICITS AND MONEY

CREATION

21-2 INFLATION AND REAL MONEY

BALANCES

21-3 DEFICITS, SEIGNORAGE, AND

INFLATION

The Case of Constant Money Growth ? Dynamics and Increasing Inflation ? Hyperinflations and Economic Activity

21-4 HOW Do HYPERINFLATIONS END?

The Elements of a Stabilization Program

?Can Stabilization Programs Fail?

?The Costs of Stabilization

21-5 CONCLUSIONS

PART SEVEN - THE LONG RUN

CHAPTER 22 - THK FACTS OF GROWTH

22-1 GROWTH IN RlCH COUNTRIES SlNCE

1950 ?

22-2 A BROADER LOOK ACROSS TlME AND

SPACE

Looking Across Two Millennia ? Looking Across Countries

22-3 THINKING ABOUT GROWTH: A

PRIMER

The Aggregate Production Function ? The Sources of Growth

CHAPTER 23 - SAVING, CAPITAL

ACCUMULATION, AND OUTPUT

23-1 INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OUTPUT

AND CAPITAL

The Effects of Capital on Output ? The Effects of Output on Capital

Accumulation

23-2 IMPLICATIONS OF ALTERNATIVE

SAVING RATES

Dynamics of Capital and Output ? Steady-State Capital and Output ? The Saving Rate and Output ?The

Saving Rate and the Golden Rule

23-3 GETTING A SENSE OF MAGNITUDES

23-4 PHYSICAL VERSUS HUMAN CAPITAL

Extending the Production Function ? Human Capital, Physical Capital, and

Output ?Endogenous Growth

CHAPTER 24 - TECHNOLOGICAL

PROGRESS AND GROWTH

24-1 THE DETERMINANTS OF

TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS

R&D Spending Decisions ?R&D,

Ideas, and Patent Laws ?R&D

Spending and Technological Progress

2-4-2 TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND THE

PRODUCTION FUNCTION

24-3 TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND THE

RATE OF GROWTH

Interactions Between Output and Capital

?Dynamics of Capital and Output

?The Effects of the Saving Rate

24-4 THE FACTS OF GROWTH REVISITED

Capital Accumulation Versus Technological

Progress ?Why Has Technological

Progress Slowed Since the Mid-1970s?

24-5 EPILOGUE: THE SECRETS OF GROWTH

APPENDIX: CONSTRUCTING A MEASURE OF

TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS

PART EIGHT - CHANGE AND

TRANSITION 509

CHAPTER 25 - TECHNOLOGICAL

PROGRESS, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND

WAGES

25-1 PRODUCTIVITY, OUTPUT, AND

UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE SHORT RUN

511

Technological Progress, Aggregate Supply,

and Aggregate Demand ?The

Empirical Evidence

25-2 PRODUCTIVITY AND THE NATURAL

RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Price and Wage Setting Revisited ? The Natural Rate of Unemployment ? The Empirical Evidence

25-3 TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND

DlSTRIBUTION EFFECTS

The Increase in Wage Inequality ?The

Causes of Increased Wage Inequality

CHAPTER 26 - TRANSITION IN EASTERN

KUROPE

26-1 AN OVERVIEW

26-2 ECONOMIC GROWTH UNDER

CENTRAL PLANNING

26-3 EXPLAINING THE DECLINE IN

OUTPUT

Measurement, Stabilization, and Structural

Change ?Shifts in Relative Demand

and Aggregate Employment ? Transition and the Decrease in

Employment

26-4 SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE

A Scenario of Sustained Transition and

Growth ?The Dangers Ahead

PART NINE - POLICY

CHAPTER 27 - SHOULD POLICY MAKERS

BE RESTRAINED?

27-1 UNCERTAINTY AND POLICY

How Much Do Macroeconomists Actually

Know? ?Should LJncertainty Lead

Policy Makers to Do Less? ? Uncertainty and Restraints on Policy

Makers

27-2 EXPECTATIONS AND POLICY

Hijackings and Negotiations ? Inflation and Unemployment Revisited

554 ?Establishing Credibility ?Time

Consistency and Restraints on Policy

Makers

27-3 POLITICS AND POLICY

Games Between Policy Makers and Voters

559 ?Games Between Policy Makers

?Back to the Balanced-Budget

Amendment

CHAPTER 28 - MONETARY POLICY: A

SUMMING UP

28-1

TTHE OPTIMAL INFLATION RATE

The Costs of Inflation ?The Benefits

of Inflation ?The Optimal Inflation

Rate: The Current Debate

28-2

MONEY VERSUS LlQUIDlTY

Money and Other Liquid Assets. ?The

Demand for Money Revisited ? Implications for Monetary Policy

THE FED IN ACTION

The Fed's Mandate ?The

Organization of the Fed ?The

Instruments of Monetarv Policy ?The

Current Versus Future Taxes ?Debt

and Primary Surpluscs ?The

Evolution of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio

29-2 FOUR ISSUES IN FlSCAL POLICY

Ricardian Equivalence ?Defidts.

Output Stabilization, and the Cyclically

Adjusted Deficit ?Wars and Deficits

?The Dangers of Very High Deht

29-3 THEU.S. BUDGETDEFICIT

PART TEN - EPILOGUE

CHAPTER 30 - THE STORY OF

MACROECONOM 1 CS

30-1 KEYNES AND THE GREAT

DEPRESSION

30-2 THE NEOCLASSICAL SYNTHESIS

Progress on All Fronts ?Keynesians

Versus Monetarists

30-3 THE RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS

CRITIQUE

The Three Implications of Rational

Expectations ?The Integration of

Rational Expectations

30-4 CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS

作者简介

内容提要

作者写作本书的目的在于和读者分享他本人过去20年在宏观经济

学研究工作中的收获，并帮助读者建立起关于宏观经济学的观念和意

识。和其他宏观经济学教科书相比，本书包含了一些其他教科书未论

及的问题，如预期理论、现代经济学的开放性等。而且本书经常在多

个层面上进行理论和实际的比较，引用了较多熔深度和趣味性于一炉

的实例。

作者以一个重要模型贯穿全书，其核心是商品市场、金融市场和

劳动市场的均衡条件。本书首先介绍IS－LM短期经济模型，讨论商品

市场和金融市场的均衡，并把对经济的预期在宏观经济决策方面的作

用和增强现代经济开放性的重要性作为其中的两个主题。接着在中长

期理论中，介绍劳动市场均衡、总供给与总需求模型，分析高失业率

和高通货膨胀率时期的特点，以及经济增长中资本积累和技术进步的

作用。最后，读者可用前面章节中学到的方法去分析当今世界最重要

的几个经济问题，回顾宏观经济学在过去50年中的演进过程，宏观

经济政策的作用及其所受到的限制，以及当前的研究方向。

本书既可作为经济管理专业本科生和研究生的教学用书，也可供

其他经济工作者参考。

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